The more abstract lesson to learn is: Be humble, and keep an open mind towards weird new companies. After a few years in Silicon Valley, you can gather a lot of useful heuristics about what’s worked and what doesn’t work. That will help you most of the time, but when it comes to the exceptional cases, all bets are off. So keep your mind open to weird, young companies that you meet that don’t fit the established pattern: Maybe the founders will all be recent MBAs, or be a spinout from a stodgy old corporation. Or maybe it’ll be in a slow-moving market, or it’ll be a married couple, or there’s 10 founders, or some other stereotypically bad thing
– Great blog post by Andrew Chen on why he thought facebook was essentially full of shit in 2006. Lots of lessons in here about how to spot something special.